瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil - based LLDPE cost increased by 2.46% to 7,551 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 133 yuan/ton to - 695 yuan/ton; coal - based LLDPE cost increased by 0.26% to 6,512 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 51 yuan/ton to 314 yuan/ton [2] - As downstream enterprises gradually took holidays and stopped work, the decline in the downstream operating rate of PE widened this week, with the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film both maintaining a downward trend [2] - Factory and social inventories entered the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure was not large [2] - Concerns about the US - Iran situation in the market offset the negative impact of the unexpected increase in EIA inventory, and international oil prices closed slightly higher yesterday [2] - As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the spot trading atmosphere of PE weakened, and the futures trading volume shrank. Attention should be paid to the scale of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the inventory removal rhythm after the festival. The daily K - line of L2605 should focus on the support around 6,680 and the pressure around 6,830 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of polyethylene was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 258,012 lots, a decrease of 20,327 lots; the open interest was 501,315 lots, a decrease of 2,602 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was 66, a decrease of 1; the 5 - 9 spread was - 47, an increase of 2; the 9 - 1 spread was - 19, a decrease of 1 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions of polyethylene was 518,077 lots, a decrease of 103 lots; the sell order volume was 548,892 lots, an increase of 1,592 lots; the net buy order volume was - 30,815 lots, a decrease of 1,695 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,663.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43 yuan; the average price in East China was 6,750.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93 yuan [2] - The basis was - 70.09, an increase of 52.56 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB intermediate price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 66.97 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.89 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 617.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 676 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.68%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.02%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From February 6th to 12th, the total polyethylene output in China was 723,900 tons, a 1.61% increase from last week [2] - From January 30th to February 5th, the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products in China decreased by 4.0% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 4.4% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous period [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 379,700 tons, a 17.55% increase from last week; as of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, a 4.70% increase from last week [2] - From January 31st to February 6th, L2605 fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 6,734 yuan/ton. This week, the plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical stopped production, but the impact days were limited. Plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restarted, and the PE output increased month - on - month [2]