瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The USDA raised the US corn export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels and lowered the ending stock forecast to 2.127 billion bushels in this month's supply and demand report. The global corn ending stock forecast was lowered to 288.98 million tons, which is lower than last month's 290.91 million tons and the analysts' average expectation of 290.48 million tons. The report data is slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, the import profit of Chinese buying ships remains good, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [3]. - In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers in the Northeast production area to sell grain is not high, the purchasing enthusiasm of drying towers has declined, and some drying towers have stopped purchasing. Feed enterprises have basically completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and deep - processing enterprises have gradually entered the stage of production suspension and purchase suspension. The market trading activity is not high, and the price is mainly stable [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, corn starch production enterprises have gradually started maintenance, and the industry operating rate has declined. However, logistics transportation has significantly shrunk, and industry inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. From the disk perspective, boosted by the strengthening of corn, starch has risen synchronously, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,320 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (5 - 9) of 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,572 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (3 - 5) of - 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,220,455 lots, an increase of 45,782 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 71,986 lots, a decrease of 19,866 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 196,629 lots, a decrease of 22,526 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 38,429 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 88,570 lots, and that of corn starch is 11,161 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 427.75 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1,740,882 contracts, an increase of 33,428 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 34,698 contracts, a decrease of 3,027 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,022.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 52.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2,530.72 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 575 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 29 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports is 704,000 tons, an increase of 199,000 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 5.127 million tons, an increase of 722,000 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports is 2.13 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 800,000 tons, an increase of 240,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3.0086 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is 63 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 135,720 tons, a decrease of 2,820 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 71 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 58.03%, an increase of 0.6%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 55.68%, a decrease of 2.11% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.9%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, a decrease of 2.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.54%, an increase of 3.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.55%, an increase of 3.58% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the report will show that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending February 5, 2026, may range from 600,000 to 1.2 million tons [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that the estimated corn export volume of Brazil in February 2026 is 953,000 tons, higher than the estimate of 793,000 tons a week ago, lower than 3.25 million tons in January, and lower than 1.317 million tons in February 2025 [2].