潮水已褪，福寿园的地产游戏现形

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the company, with significant declines in revenue and profitability projected for 2024 and 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The core business model of the company is fundamentally real estate, with cemetery services accounting for 80% of its revenue, primarily from grave sales [10][11]. - The company has experienced a drastic decline in market capitalization, dropping from a peak of 187 billion to 59 billion [5]. - The investment logic surrounding the company has shifted due to regulatory changes and a decline in consumer willingness to pay high prices for burial plots [27][29]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 26.28 billion, with a significant drop to 20.77 billion in 2024 and further to 6.11 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.47% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be a loss of 2.61 billion, marking a 187.49% decline compared to the previous year [4][30]. - The average sales price of burial plots has decreased significantly, from 12 million per plot in 2024 to 6.4 million in the first half of 2025 [32]. Business Model Analysis - The company’s revenue is heavily reliant on grave sales, which constituted 74% of total revenue in 2024 [14]. - The company has utilized various methods to acquire cemetery land, including government allocations, mergers, and partnerships, but faces increasing regulatory scrutiny [18][19]. - The company is attempting to transition from a traditional funeral service provider to a technology-driven service provider, focusing on data and service offerings [33]. Market Dynamics - The demand for burial services is influenced by factors such as increasing cremation rates, cultural attitudes towards funerals, and an aging population [23]. - Supply constraints are exacerbated by government regulations limiting cemetery land availability, leading to a reliance on acquisitions for growth [24]. - The company’s market share is significantly higher than its competitors, with a 0.83% market share compared to 0.05% and 0.02% for its closest rivals [26].