建信期货豆粕日报-20260213

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of external strength and internal weakness is obvious. The external market is mainly boosted by the news of China's continuous purchase of US soybeans, and the potential biodiesel policy in the future may be beneficial to US soybean crushing. The Brazilian harvest continues to suppress the upside space of the external market, but the overall pressure may be smaller than expected. In the domestic market, the willingness of funds to leave the market is obvious, and soybean meal rebounded after falling to the previous support level, but the strength is less than that of the external market. After the holiday, pay attention to the auction of imported soybeans, the weather in Argentina, and whether there is news of trade purchases between China and the US. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The US soybean futures contract in the external market was strong today, with the main contract approaching 1150 cents. The recent trend of external strength and internal weakness is obvious. In the external market, it is mainly boosted by the news of China's continuous purchase of US soybeans. The market has gradually begun to price in China's additional purchase of 8 million tons of US soybeans in the future, and the US soybean exports may be increased. The potential biodiesel policy in the future may be beneficial to US soybean crushing, and the ending inventory in the future balance sheet may be slightly revised down. In South America, the Brazilian harvest continues to suppress the upside space of the external market, but due to the good domestic crushing demand, the selling sentiment of Brazilian farmers supported by the local currency is average, and the overall pressure may be smaller than expected. In Argentina, the weather has improved to some extent, but it is still in the critical growth period in the future, which needs continuous attention. In the domestic market, the willingness of funds to leave the market is obvious. Soybean meal rebounded after falling to the previous support level, but the strength is less than that of the external market, which is also affected by the pricing of the Brazilian soybean harvest. [6] - Operation Suggestions: After the holiday, pay attention to the auction of imported soybeans, the weather in Argentina, and whether there is news of trade purchases between China and the US. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [6]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rule on Tuesday, aiming to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 per gallon tax credit for low-carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). Analysts pointed out that there are still some questions in the regulation that have not been answered [9]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second-highest level in history, with a crushing volume of 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024 [9]. - Crop experts expect the soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season to be 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the current USDA estimate of 48.5 million tons. The climate in the southern planting area of Argentina has become dry recently, and there will be insufficient rainfall in most of the next few weeks, which needs close attention. The soybean production forecast in Brazil in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged at a record 179 million tons, and there is a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex-factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the price difference between soybean meal 1-5, the price difference between soybean meal 5-9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][15].