建信期货国债日报-20260213

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation is weak, with the January PMI falling more than seasonally. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the economic indicators are expected to decline further. However, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's expectation of monetary easing is not strong. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure [11]. - The current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not fully price in the potential easing space. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the money market, so the upside space of interest rates is limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively maintain the cross - festival money market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will increase. Although the return of cash will supplement liquidity, the central bank usually withdraws funds, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival, trading is expected to be light, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions on the Day: The money market improved slightly but remained in a tight balance. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range [8]. - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with a larger decline in long - term interest rates. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.774%, a decrease of 1.2bp [9]. - Money Market: The inter - bank money market improved marginally but remained in a tight balance. The net reverse repurchase injection in the open market was 448 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index was high in the morning and slightly declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day funds rate fell about 1.3bp to around 1.53%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "Fourth - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" on February 10. The report proposed that the central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, support the good start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also introduced three ways of coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy [13]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae said she is open to dialogue with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded that such "dialogue" is unacceptable [13]. - US President Trump said he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and the second - round negotiation is expected to be held next week [14]. - Before the Spring Festival, the competition among banks for deposits has heated up again. Small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, while large banks use methods such as giving points and reward vouchers. Multiple institutions and industry insiders believe that the matured time - deposit funds in 2026 are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more to low - risk assets such as bank wealth management, money market funds, and insurance [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 12, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - Money Market: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and change in the pledged repurchase rate of inter - bank deposits [29][33] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]