农产品早报-20260213

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival due to reduced market transactions and downstream restocking, while long - term policies need attention [1] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [2] - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, while long - term it may seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [3] - Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment due to low initial inventory, expanding textile production, and favorable policies [5] - Egg prices have stopped rising and started to fall after pre - holiday stocking. The 05 contract is affected by farmers' chicken culling, and the supply pressure in the second quarter can be alleviated by observing the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens [13] - Apple inventory is decreasing faster during the holiday, with different price trends for different - quality fruits. The sales in the distribution area have not improved significantly [16] - Pig prices are weak in the short - term. During the pre - holiday period of increased supply and demand, inventory reduction pressure dominates, with medium - term pressure still existing and long - term inflection points providing support [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch Corn - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2,180, in Jinzhou increased by 10 to 2,290, in Weifang remained unchanged, and in Shekou increased by 20 to 2,450. The basis, trade profit, and import profit also changed [1] Starch - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2,750, in Weifang remained at 2,820. The basis decreased by 1, and the processing profit remained unchanged at - 83 [1] Sugar - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price in Liuzhou remained at 5,370 (after the 9th), in Nanning remained unchanged, and in Kunming had no data on the 12th. The basis increased by 12, the import profit from Thailand increased by 32, and from Brazil also increased by 32. The number of warehouse receipts remained at 14,719 [3] Cotton - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the 3128 cotton price increased by 75 to 15,840, the import - related data had some changes, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 79 to - 977 [18] Egg - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Hebei decreased by 0.16 to 3.42, in Henan decreased by 0.10 to 3.45. The basis decreased by 230 to 485, and the prices of substitute products remained unchanged [12] Apple - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8,900, and the price of Shaanxi 70 general - quality apples remained at 4.00. The national inventory decreased by 56 to 531.51, Shandong inventory decreased by 138 to 218.35, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 60 to 140.40. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month bases also changed [15][16] Pig - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10 to 12.33, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.05 to 12.05, in Shandong Linyi increased by 0.20 to 12.27, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.25 to 12.45, and in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.30 to 12.40. The basis increased by 115 to 790 [16]