芳烃橡胶早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors and the limited potential for further increase in PX supply and TA unit load, the valuation is becoming reasonable, and attention can be paid to phased positive spreads and long - allocation opportunities [2]. - For MEG, after recent valuation compression, supply - side reduction has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory reduction in the far - month at current prices has increased. During the production cycle, the overall elasticity is limited, and short - term put - selling opportunities can be considered [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with medium - low valuation and weak drivers. The overall contradiction is limited, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From February 6th to 12th, crude oil decreased by 1.9, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 7, PTA inner - market spot increased by 25, and polyester staple fiber POY 150D/48F increased by 45. The PTA processing margin increased by 69, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 28 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Some proximal TA devices restarted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, polyester load continued to decline, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees weakened month - on - month. PX restarted in China, overseas load increased slightly, PXN continued to shrink month - on - month, and both disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From February 6th to 12th, MEG outer - market price decreased by 4, MEG inner - market price decreased by 13, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 13 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Proximal domestic oil - based devices restarted while coal - based devices were under maintenance, the overall start - up rate increased slightly, port inventory continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week, the arrival forecast decreased slightly during the week, the basis weakened slightly, and coal - based benefits shrank [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From February 6th to 12th, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 5, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 5 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Proximal device pre - holiday maintenance continued, the start - up rate further dropped to 77.7%, sales were weak, inventory increased month - on - month, and spot processing fees improved month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn sector continued to decline, raw material inventory and finished product inventory remained stable, and benefits remained the same month - on - month [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From February 6th to 12th, for natural rubber, the weekly increase of US - dollar Thai standard rubber was 45, and the weekly increase of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 610. For 20 - number rubber, the weekly increase of NR main contract was 235 [4]. - Key Ratios and Situations: The weekly change of the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 150, and the weekly change of the difference between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract was - 49. The main contradiction is not clearly stated, and the strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - Price Changes: From February 6th to 12th, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 11, and the price of benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 3 [9]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased from 582 to 459, the domestic profit of EPS increased from 255 to 325, and the domestic profit of PS increased from - 438 to - 399 [9].