有色早报-20260213

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, with limited supply and increasing demand; for the short - term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals, and attention should be paid to support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for Shanghai copper [1] - For aluminum, wait for supply - demand negative factors to materialize before going long; if the Iran situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise [1] - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility; pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the short - term is dominated by the overall sentiment of non - ferrous metals [5] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and the short - term is dominated by the overall sentiment of non - ferrous metals [9] - It is recommended to short lead at high prices in the short - term, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [12] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term; in the long - term, if the macro situation turns, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [14] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [18] - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, and there may be a large space for calendar spread arbitrage if the intermediate inventory further decreases [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly. US inventory siphoning ability is disappearing, but global consumption is good. The industry still has support, and copper prices may rise in the medium - term [1] - Key data changes from February 6th to February 12th: Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 20, waste - refined copper spread increased by 374, LME inventory increased by 4,550, etc. [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices pulled back, with weak demand and unexpected supply increase. The spot premium strengthened [1] - Data changes: Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 90, aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,200, etc. from February 6th to February 12th [1] Zinc - Supply side: Domestic and imported TC is declining, but profits are supported by by - products. Production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons in February. Demand side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas export window is currently closed [2] - Data changes: Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,750 from February 6th to February 12th [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production decreased slightly. Demand: Overall weak. Inventory: Domestic delivery to the warehouse continued, and LME inventory remained stable [5] - Data changes: 1.5% Philippine nickel ore price increased by 0.0, Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 2,850 from February 6th to February 12th [5] Stainless Steel - Supply: Steel mill production decreased slightly. Demand: Entering the off - season. Cost: Nickel iron decreased slightly, and chromite increased slightly with chromite ore. Inventory: Seasonal accumulation this week [9] - Key prices remained unchanged from February 6th to February 12th [9] Lead - Supply side: Primary lead production is affected by seasonal factors, and secondary lead is affected by environmental protection and losses. Demand side: Battery production and demand are weak [10][12] - Data changes: Social inventory increased by 6, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 from February 6th to February 12th [10] Tin - Supply: There are differences in the resumption expectations in Wa State, Indonesia's quota is determined. Demand: There are differences in downstream restocking willingness, and overseas consumption is flat [14] - Data changes: Spot import revenue increased by 5,973.29, LME inventory decreased by 60 from February 6th to February 12th [13] Industrial Silicon - Supply is shrinking monthly, and it is expected to have a double - reduction in supply and demand in February, maintaining a de - stocking trend [18] - Data changes: 421 Yunnan basis increased by 35, 421 Sichuan basis increased by 35, etc. from February 6th to February 12th [18] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are strong, with upstream maintenance exceeding expectations and downstream maintenance less than expected. There may be calendar spread arbitrage opportunities [20] - Data changes: SMM electric carbon price increased by 4,500, SMM industrial carbon price increased by 4,500 from February 6th to February 12th [20]