大越期货白糖早报-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink compared to the 25/26 season. Covrig Analytics predicts the surplus to be 1.4 million tons, down from 4.7 million tons in 25/26, and Green Pool forecasts 156,000 tons, lower than 2.74 million tons in 25/26 [4]. - The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, but the medium - long - term gap is decreasing. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5,300 yuan [9]. - The external market has reached a new low, while Zhengzhou sugar has shown relatively strong recent trends. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,300 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder totaled 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,360 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 106 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, indicating a bearish factor [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish factor [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Expectation: The external market has reached a new low, while Zhengzhou sugar has shown relatively strong recent trends. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,300 [5][9]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 25/26 season, ISO predicts 1.63 million tons, and Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons. For the 26/27 season, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 1.4 million tons, and Green Pool predicts 156,000 tons [4][9][31]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar production in China has been increasing, reaching 11.7 million tons in 2025/26. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons [33]. - Price Data: The international sugar price in 2025/26 is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. - Import Cost and Profit: The cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided, such as on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].