大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260213

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel: The external market has seen a significant decline. In January, production continued to rise, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and LME inventories declined slightly, with sufficient market supply. The sentiment for nickel ore is bullish, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices have started to fall, and the cost line has shifted downward. Stainless steel inventories continue to rise, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, LME inventories are increasing, the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions. For SHFE Nickel 2603, on the last trading day before the holiday, focus on controlling positions and conduct intraday trading [2]. - For Stainless Steel: The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are rising with strong bullish sentiment, while nickel iron prices have declined, and the cost line has shifted downward. Stainless steel inventories continue to rise. The basis is positive, futures warehouse receipts are increasing, the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. For Stainless Steel 2603, control positions and focus on intraday trading before the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On February 12, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 139,610, up 250 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 17,250, down 815; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 13,970, down 175. The nickel index was at 136,900, down 3,050, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,412, down 142 [8]. - Spot Prices: On February 12, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 145,350, up 2,750; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 149,550, up 2,250 with a premium of 8,750; 1 imported nickel was at 140,750, up 3,000 with a discount of 50; nickel beans were at 143,250, up 3,000. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [8]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of February 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 57,457 tons, with the futures inventory at 51,274 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons and 4,398 tons respectively. On February 12, LME nickel inventory was 285,750 tons (unchanged), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 52,027 tons (unchanged), and the total inventory was 337,777 tons (unchanged) [10][11]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons. On February 12, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day [15][16]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On February 12, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 64.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and (Ni0.9%) was 30 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The high - nickel wet ton price was 1,046.77 yuan/nickel point, up 9.16 yuan, and the low - nickel wet ton price was 3,600 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,816, the scrap steel production cost was 13,442, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 18,216 [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 135,638 yuan/ton [25].