大越期货棉花早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is considered neutral. The main contract 05 of cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions and focus on intraday short - term trading on the last trading day before the festival [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not mentioned in the provided content 3.2 Daily Tips - The main contract 05 of cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions and focus on intraday short - term trading on the last trading day before the festival [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not mentioned in the provided content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - related: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4] - Price - related: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,069, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1,279, indicating a premium over futures [6] - Inventory - related: The expected ending inventory in December of the 2025/2026 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.35 million tons [6] - Other factors: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The long - short position of the main contract is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6] 3.5 Position Data - Not mentioned in the provided content