大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260213

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with cost support from OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][7] Summary by Directory LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Crude oil is in a volatile state, and polyolefins follow the large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -134, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.0%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), which is bullish [4] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, with a neutral situation [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, but downstream enterprises stopping work near the Spring Festival, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [6] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [6] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply and demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Crude oil is in a volatile state, and polyolefins follow the large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes is also affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 2, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), which is bullish [7] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, with a neutral situation [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, but downstream enterprises stopping work near the Spring Festival, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support [8] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [8] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply and demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6600 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6734 (down 53), the basis is -134 (up 53), the warehouse receipt is 9428 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), and the PE social inventory is 50.8 tons (up 2.3 tons) [9] - PP: The spot delivery price is 6650 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6648 (down 45), the basis is 2 (up 45), the warehouse receipt is 18679 (up 1385), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), and the PP social inventory is 27.1 tons (up 0.5 tons) [9] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]