大越期货纯碱早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with ample overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1110 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1162 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 52 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The expected full - production time of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line is postponed [3]. - Negative Factors: - Main Logic: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. - Risk Points: The cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Aspect | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1178 | 1162 | - 1.36% | | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price (yuan/ton) | 1120 | 1110 | - 0.89% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 58 | - 52 | - 10.34% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, including 414,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity Changes: - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including production lines from Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Lingshan, and Chongqing Xiangyu. - In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.8 million tons, including production lines from Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, and Henan Zhongda. - In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons, including production lines from Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali, Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II, Hubei Xindu, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, and Henan Jinshan [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [24]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27]. - Photovoltaic Glass: No specific data on production and demand are provided, but it is mentioned that the production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]