大越期货油脂早报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Soybean - related supply: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - Palm oil supply: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - Rapeseed - related supply: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - Total domestic oil and fat supply: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - Soybean - related demand: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]