大越期货沪铜早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disrupted, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall situation is bullish. The spot price is 102160, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral. On February 12, copper inventory increased by 4550 to 196650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy. January manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from last month, manufacturing prosperity declined; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price 102160, basis 170, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On Feb 12, copper inventory up 4550 to 196650 tons, SHFE copper inventory up 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week; neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price below 20 - day MA, 20 - day MA moving down; bearish [2]. - Main Position: Main net long position with long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances, copper price at new high, high - level fluctuations. Control positions during holidays [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多Factors: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and production cuts in Freeport Indonesia's mining area [3][4]. - 利空Factors: Unexpected US comprehensive tariffs, global economic pessimism, and high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. 3.3 Inventory - related - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: Bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fee declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].