大越期货甲醇早报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the holiday approaches. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The price of MA2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 suggest that the inland methanol market is in a pre - holiday rest period. Demand from traditional downstream devices like formaldehyde is decreasing, and supply is sufficient with low inventory in some enterprises. The port market has experienced significant price fluctuations and is now in a range - bound state. The expected price range for MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2270 [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2220 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 94.27 tons, a decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas is 46.08 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons [5]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average [5]. - The main positions are net short, with short positions increasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; previous inventory in production areas is low, and some enterprises are even restricting sales; some downstream users are still stocking up before the festival [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, with no supply shortage; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde production is shutting down, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, leading to a short - term decline in demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions has minor changes. The futures closing price is 2231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts are 8032, an increase of 450, and the effective forecasts are 0, a decrease of 450 [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis is - 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import spread is 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory in East China ports is 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons, and the inventory in South China ports is 38.24 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. - Foreign Methanol Plants: In Iran, some plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. In other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, the operation status of methanol plants varies [56]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, such as the Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy plant, while others are operating stably or at a low load [57].