大越期货PVC期货早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate at 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4988 [10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a 0.53% month - on - month increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand - side: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period; the downstream profile operating rate was 29.13%, a 2.39 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream pipe operating rate was 33%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream film operating rate was 62.14%, a 3.56 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.24%, a 3.73 - percentage - point decrease. All are higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive [8]. - Cost - side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, with a 11.00% reduction in losses from the previous period; the profit of the ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a 91.60% month - on - month increase; the double - ton spread was 1,820.75 yuan/ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. All are lower than the historical average [9]. - Other aspects: On February 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 287,700 tons, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory was 592,860 tons, a 1.40% month - on - month increase. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [11]. - Leveraging factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebounds, high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including enterprise indicators, some monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, etc., and their changes from the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - difference trend: The report presents the base - difference trend of PVC futures, including the base - difference, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract over a long - term period [20]. - Futures market situation: It includes the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, MA120, and the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [23]. - Spread analysis: It shows the spread analysis of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [26]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium carbide method - related aspects: - Lancoke: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke [29]. - Calcium carbide: It includes the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide in Shaanxi [32]. - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: It includes the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt [35]. - Caustic soda: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of 32% caustic soda in Shandong [38][40]. - Chlor - alkali cost - profit: It includes the chlor - alkali gross profit, cost, and double - ton spread [40]. - PVC supply trend: It includes the weekly capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, the profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC [43][45]. - Demand trend: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC. It also includes the gross profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [48][50][56]. - Inventory: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - Ethylene method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [65].