大越期货尿素早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is a bullish factor. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, and the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is bullish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being de - stocked [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Likely to Rise: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - Likely to Fall: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]