大越期货原油早报-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term oil price will fluctuate weakly. The possibility of military actions disrupting supply in the near term has decreased due to Trump's statement on the Iran issue. The IEA's prediction of a large - scale annual average supply surplus in 2026 also weighs on the oil price. The domestic market is slightly weaker than the international market, and the market is waiting for Spring Festival consumption and travel data. The SC2604 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in the next month, and the US Treasury will issue more licenses to relax sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector. The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to high oil prices, which is bearish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending February 6, and Cushing inventories also increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is near the average, which is neutral. As of February 3, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate weakly. The SC2604 contract will trade in the 455 - 465 range, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Ukraine - Russia Peace Talks: Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US needs to put more pressure on Russia if it wants the conflict to end in summer. Russia is still considering whether to participate in the proposed peace talks in Miami, and the previous two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi did not yield results [5]. - US - Iran Relations: Trump said the US must reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He is willing to negotiate for as long as necessary and warned of a possible rapid development in the situation in the next month [5]. - IEA Monthly Report: The forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 has been lowered to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, up from 3.69 million barrels per day in the previous report [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6]. - Bearish Factors: The IEA's concern about oil supply surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term focus on geopolitical factors, and long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed, with Brent and WTI down by 2.71% and 3.16% respectively, SC up by 1.07%, and Oman up by 0.82% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market have also changed. The price of WTI dropped by 100%, while the prices of other types of crude oil had relatively small changes [9]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6, and EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 12 [3]. 3.5 Positioning Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 27,583 to 124,565 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 31,332 to 278,249 [18].