大越期货贵金属早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - AI panic escalated, and the sharp decline in US stocks presumably triggered algorithmic selling of metals, causing the prices of gold and silver to drop. Gold and silver prices are volatile, and due to the long Spring Festival holiday, investors are advised to operate with caution and hold light positions [4][5] - Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro level [9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: US stocks tumbled, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 7.04 basis points to 4.100%. The US dollar index dropped 0.02% to 96.91. COMEX gold futures declined 3.08% to $4941.4 per ounce. The basis was - 3.3, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main net long position increased [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the sharp decline in US stocks led to a significant drop in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 10.62% to $75.01 per ounce. The basis was - 878, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 7,531 kilograms to 349,633 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [5] 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, there is no night trading today. Attention should be paid to China's 70 - city housing prices, US January CPI, January PPI, and the speech of the ECB President at the Munich Security Conference. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded by about 5.4 yuan/gram. The volatility of gold prices is difficult to decline, and investors should operate with caution [4] - Silver: The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 1,558 yuan/gram. The volatility of silver prices has expanded again, and it is significantly affected by risk preference. Investors are advised to hold light positions during the long Spring Festival holiday [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - 08:00: US Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) gives a welcome speech at an event - 08:05: Fed Governor Milan speaks - 09:30: The National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities - 11:30: Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura speaks - 15:30: Switzerland's January CPI is released - Time TBD: The Munich Security Conference opens (February 13 - 15) - 18:00: The revised value of the Eurozone's Q4 GDP is released - 18:30: The Russian Central Bank announces its interest rate decision - 20:00: ECB Vice - President de Guindos, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speak, and the Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina holds a monetary policy press conference - 21:00: There is no night trading on the last trading day before Chinese New Year's Eve on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange - 21:30: US January CPI is released - Sunday 00:30: ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an opening speech at a round - table discussion at the 2026 Munich Security Conference - Sunday 17:30: ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a symposium at the Munich Security Conference [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support. However, there are risks such as the Trump shock, improved US economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [9] - Silver: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, expected easing due to the possible appointment of a new Fed chairman, a significant drop in the US dollar, tariff concerns, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the diminishing marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, internal differences within the Fed leading to a possible suspension of interest rate cuts, a deterioration in risk preference, and optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13] 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 4,679 (3.06%) to 157,666 on February 12, 2026, compared with February 11. The short positions decreased by 1,150 (- 3.56%) to 31,171, and the net long position increased by 5,829 (4.83%) to 126,495 [30] - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 1,606 (0.54%) to 298,029 on February 12, 2026, compared with February 11. The short positions increased by 4,621 (2.27%) to 207,906, and the net long position decreased by 3,015 (- 3.24%) to 90,123 [32] - ETF Positions: Both gold and silver ETF positions decreased slightly [34][36] - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stopped falling and rebounded, reaching the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [38][40]