大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed a decrease last week, with a production of 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week reduction but still above the historical average. The demand - side saw a decrease in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Cost - side analysis indicates that the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate remained flat, while the cost of lithium mica increased. The overall situation shows a tight supply - demand balance, with the market influenced by news - driven sentiment oscillations [8]. - The expected supply of lithium carbonate in the next month is predicted to decline, with production and imports decreasing by 16.31% and 11.02% respectively compared to the previous month. However, the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply decreased last week, demand - side inventory declined, and cost - side conditions varied. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 141,645 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 5,050 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 140,647 yuan/ton, a 2.70% daily increase, also with a loss. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On February 12th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 142,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,920 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week and below the historical average. Downstream inventory increased by 1.91% week - on - week and was above the historical average. Other inventories decreased by 4.44% week - on - week and were above the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 2.39% week - on - week and was below the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: In February 2026, lithium carbonate production and imports are expected to decline, while demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Price and Basis: The prices of various lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related upstream products, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.26% to 142,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.35% to 139,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The daily production cost of spodumene remained flat at 141,645 yuan/ton, while the daily production cost of lithium mica increased by 2.70% to 140,647 yuan/ton. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate decreased by 11.49% to 26,950 tons [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 5.00% to 325,200 tons, and the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms. The monthly total battery loading volume increased by 4.92% to 98,100 GWh [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore, production, and import volume showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed fluctuations, with a balance of 12,364 LCE in January 2026 [25][28]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials and the monthly production and import volume were presented. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed fluctuations, with a balance of 2,693 physical tons in January 2026 [32][40]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide were analyzed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide was - 1,361 physical tons in January 2026 [43][45]. 3.4 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling production methods for lithium carbonate were analyzed. The profit and cost of lithium hydroxide production by different methods, as well as the profit of related processing and conversion, were also presented [48][50][53]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters and the total inventory, as well as the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source, were shown [56]. 3.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries were analyzed. The monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume showed different trends [58]. - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage: The inventory, winning bids, operating rate, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries were presented [60]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors were analyzed [63][66]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, operating rate, production, and inventory of ternary materials were analyzed [70][72]. - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium were presented [74][77]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles were analyzed [82][83][86].