大越期货沥青期货早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to further reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt start - up rate is 3.3%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate is 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road modified asphalt start - up rate is 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate is 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil prices remain stable, and it is expected that the cost support will remain stable in the short term [8]. - The basis on February 12 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract is - 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; the in - plant inventory is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate, which is bullish [8]. - On the trading board, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Overall, the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil prices remain stable, and cost support remains stable in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 fluctuating in the range of 3,308 - 3,378 [8]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 04 contract price decreased from 3,373 to 3,343, a decrease of 0.89% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis changing from - 163 to - 133, a change of - 18.40% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: The 3 - 6 spread decreased from - 12 to - 21, a change of 75.00%; the 3 - 9 spread decreased from 19 to 5, a change of - 73.68% [15]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's registered warehouse receipts increased from 48,290 to 53,070, an increase of 9.90% [15]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased to 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; in - plant inventory decreased to 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%; port diluted asphalt inventory increased to 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [17]. - Weekly start - up rate: The Shandong refinery start - up rate decreased to 23.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [17]. - Weekly production and loss: The sample enterprise production decreased to 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%; the weekly maintenance volume increased to 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [17]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased to 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%; the Shandong shipment volume decreased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.26%; the East China shipment volume increased to 72,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.03% [17]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.55%; the weekly delayed coking asphalt spread is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 405.51% [17]. - Downstream demand start - up rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the construction asphalt start - up rate remained at 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 4.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.24%; the road modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 9.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 35.71%; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to 15.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.67% [17]. 3.2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][22]. 3.3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can assist in analyzing the relative value of different products [34][35]. 3.4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [37][38]. 3.5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is important for understanding the inventory situation of raw materials [49][50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply capacity of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [56][58]. - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production capacity of refineries [59][60]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt start - up rate from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity of the asphalt industry [62][63]. - Maintenance loss estimate: It presents the historical trends of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026, which is important for understanding the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [65][66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [72][73]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [75][76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt industry [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trend: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [90][91]. - New local special bond trend: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the growth rate of infrastructure investment [92]. - Downstream machinery demand trend: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery industry [94][95][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It presents the historical trends of construction asphalt start - up rate and modified asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt start - up rate, shoe - material TPR start - up rate, road modified asphalt start - up rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt start - up rate from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the start - up situation of downstream industries [105][106][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [109][110].