大越期货豆粕早报-20260213

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, spot price premium, and a mix of news, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The market is affected by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American weather [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It is predicted to fluctuate between 4620 and 4740. Supported by the upward movement of US soybeans and strong domestic spot prices and demand, but restricted by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival, there is a risk of a pull - back after a rise [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - There is no specific content for daily hints in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic hog farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained strong in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation on US soybean产区 weather, and influenced by the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Main Logic: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish Factors: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main Logic: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From February 4th to 12th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3151 yuan, and the transaction volume decreased from 26.17 million tons to 1.3 million tons. The transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 3 million tons on February 6th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 667 yuan to 701 yuan [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From February 5th to 12th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend, and the spot prices also had corresponding changes [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From February 3rd to 12th, the number of bean 1 warehouse receipts remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease on February 6th; the number of bean 2 warehouse receipts appeared on February 5th and then decreased; the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased on February 4th and then remained relatively stable [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), showing the development of soybean production in different regions [34][39][42]. - USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Positioning Data - There is no specific content for positioning data in the report. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - Soybean Meal Market: Soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has shown slight fluctuations [23][25][27][29]. - Imported Soybean and Hog Market: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year and has recently decreased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated downward following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has shown slight fluctuations. The hog inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month. The hog price has shown slight fluctuations recently, while the piglet price has slightly rebounded. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has continued to rise. Domestic hog farming has achieved a small profit, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [45][47][54][56][62][64].