大越期货菜粕早报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will oscillate in the range of 2290 - 2350. Affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, it will be weak in the short - term and maintain range - bound in the medium - term. After the overall negative factors are digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates in the range of 2290 - 2350. Its fundamental situation is neutral, with basis indicating a premium, low inventory being positive, price above the 20 - day moving average, but an increase in short positions of the main force and capital outflow being negative [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production has increased this year. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading data: From February 4th to 12th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3117 - 3151 yuan. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was around 667 - 701 yuan [13]. - Price data: From February 5th to 12th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605 contract) rose from 2238 to 2302 yuan, and the spot price rose from 2430 to 2450 yuan [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From February 4th to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - Supply - demand balance data: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have changed over the years. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet during the same period, the output, total supply, and inventory consumption ratio also show different trends [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in a summarized way, but it is mentioned that the short positions of the main force have increased and the capital has flowed out [9].