工业硅期货早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - Supply - side: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - Demand - side: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - Basis: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Positioning: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply - side: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand - side: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - Basis: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Positioning: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]