永安期货集运早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, and it is significantly affected by pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of price - increase announcements, rush - shipping expectations, and off - season expectations [3][27] - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to determine the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large margin for price adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously. The 10 contract is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3][27] - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly shorting the 09 contract and buying the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3][27] - Due to frequent pre - Spring - Festival fund - closing operations, the market is expected to be highly volatile, and cautious operation is recommended this week [3][27] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2604 (1258.9, +6.88%), EC2605 (1304.0, +2.25%), EC2606 (1566.1, +4.34%) etc. were reported. The base spreads and the changes in trading volume and open interest were also provided [2][26] - Month - to - Month Price Differences: The month - to - month price differences between contracts (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610) and their daily and weekly changes were presented [2][26] 3.2 Spot Market Data - European Line Spot: In Week 7, the opening prices of shipping companies such as MSK (1950, - 100 MoM), PA (around 2000), MSC (2140), OA (2300) US dollars were reported, with a central price of 2130 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 US dollars, and other shipping companies' quotes were mostly unchanged. Last week, MSC led a price - increase announcement, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 US dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 was 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period [4][28] - Spot Index Changes: The European line spot index (1657.94 points on 2026/2/9, - 7.49% MoM) and the SCFI index (1403 US dollars/TEU on 2026/2/6, - 1.06% MoM) were reported [2][26] 3.3 Relevant News - Trump stated on February 12 that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." He also mentioned that he had a "very good" meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and whether an agreement is reached "ultimately depends on him." He emphasized that the agreement must be "very fair and very good" [5][29]