合成橡胶市场周报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation atmosphere becomes lighter, with the inventory of production and trading enterprises increasing. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly declined, and it will be at the lowest point during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. - During the long holiday, attention should be paid to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. - Market review and outlook: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated weakly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation is light, with inventory rising. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined and will be at the lowest point during the holiday [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.99% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13th, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 14,580 tons, an increase of 3,470 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of February 12th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of February 12th, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of February 12th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at $612.13/ton, an increase of $9.5/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at $690/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of February 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 74.55%, an increase of 1.43% from last week; the port inventory was 36,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In January 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. As of February 12th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.63%, an increase of 0.77% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of February 12th, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of February 13th, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 33,910 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 6,110 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week [45]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of February 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [48]. - Tire exports: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [51]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant information provided