沪锡市场周报：供需两弱成交平淡，预计锡价震荡调整-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the tin price will undergo a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical indicators. The macro - economic situation shows that the US housing market data is not as expected; on the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the production of refined tin is currently limited; on the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder. Technically, the trading volume between long and short positions has decreased [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 2.35% and an amplitude of 12.03%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 365,400 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: - Macro - aspect: In January in the US, the annualized total number of existing home sales was 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million, and the previous value was 4.35 million. - Supply - side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in the import volume of domestic tin ore, which is expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, the processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a sign of alleviating the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to increase after the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window is gradually opening, and the import pressure is increasing. - Demand - side: The development prospect of the AI field is strong, which will drive a significant increase in the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has rebounded, and due to the suspension of year - end procurement, the inventory has increased, with the spot premium maintained at 2,000 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. - Technical - aspect: The position has remained stable, the price has adjusted, and the trading between long and short positions has become lighter [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 361,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,290 yuan/ton or 1.49% compared to February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 47,800 US dollars/ton, an increase of 810 US dollars/ton or 1.72% compared to February 6 [8][11]. - Ratio Changes: As of February 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.85, an increase of 0.12 compared to February 6. As of February 11, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.86, an increase of 0.11 compared to February 5 [16]. - Position Changes: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 7,247 lots, a decrease of 548 lots compared to February 9, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 80,108 lots, a decrease of 3,010 lots or 3.62% compared to February 6 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply - side - Tin Ore Import: In December 2025, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December this year, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 135,757.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.35% [26]. - Refined Tin Production: In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On February 12, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 14,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026. On February 12, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 377,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.79% compared to February 11, 2026; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 381,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.78% compared to February 11, 2026 [32]. - Refined Tin Import Window: As of February 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 8,064.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,553.76 yuan/ton compared to February 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 15.4775 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 27.6307 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [35][36]. - Inventory Changes: As of February 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 7,490 tons, an increase of 360 tons or 5.05% compared to February 5. As of February 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons or 25.87% compared to last week. As of February 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 10,353 tons, an increase of 3,637 tons or 54.15% compared to February 6 [41]. 3.3.2. Demand - side - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: On February 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 8,084.7, an increase of 470.06 or 6.17% compared to February 5. From January to December 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 484,279,481,000 pieces, an increase of 32,856,516,000 pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [44]. - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of December 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% compared to November 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [48].