瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260213

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Urea Market Weekly Report from Ruida Futures Research Institute on February 13, 2026, with researcher Lin Jingyi [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The domestic urea market showed a narrow - range upward trend this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Despite being in the last order - receiving period before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment was active, and factory prices gradually increased [7] Market Outlook - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, no plant is planned to shut down, and one shut - down plant may resume. Considering possible short - term equipment failures, output is expected to remain stable. There is still some local agricultural demand, but most demand is on hold due to the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer enterprises entered the production - reduction stage this week, with capacity utilization decreasing week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the short term and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, but may start to accumulate during the Spring Festival due to reduced long - distance logistics [7] Strategy Suggestion - During the long holiday, pay attention to the impact of external macro - situation, geopolitics, and temperature on post - festival agricultural demand [7] Group 3: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.21% [10] Spread - As of February 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 41 [12] Position Analysis - No detailed information on the change of net long positions of the top 20 in urea futures is provided, only the name of the analysis item is mentioned [15] Warehouse Receipts - As of February 13, there were 10,382 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, a decrease of 478 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market Domestic Price - As of February 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [26] International Price - As of February 12, the FOB price of urea in China was 442.5 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30] Basis - As of February 12, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Market Coal and Gas Prices - As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industry Situation Production and Capacity Utilization - As of February 12, China's urea production was 1.4931 million tons, up 23,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.63%. The capacity utilization rate was 90.59%, up 1.45% from the previous period [40] Inventory - As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, up 1000 tons week - on - week, a 0.61% increase. As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, down 83,800 tons from last week, a 9.12% decrease [43] Export - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% decrease from the previous month [46] Group 7: Downstream Market Compound Fertilizer and Melamine - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, down 5.6 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the next period and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 51.5%, down 7.3 percentage points from last week [49]