瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly, while the inland methanol price rose slightly. The pre - holiday inventory clearance work of enterprises was successfully completed, and the market was mainly focused on pre - selling holiday and post - holiday orders. Some local markets showed signs of bottoming out and warming up [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production. The pre - holiday inventory clearance and pre - selling of goods in the inland area were carried out smoothly, and most enterprises currently have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. It is expected that the inventory of inland production enterprises will increase during the holiday. The port methanol inventory increased slightly this week, and it may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2170 - 2240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2200 - 2230 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price rose slightly, with the price range in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area being 1805 - 1873 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying being 2180 - 2190 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: The domestic methanol production will decrease due to more production capacity loss from maintenance and cuts. The inland inventory decreased this week but is expected to increase during the holiday. The port inventory increased slightly this week and may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitical situation, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 2.5% [11]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 32 [15]. - Warehouse Receipt: As of February 12, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8032, an increase of 50 compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of February 12, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1850 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of February 12, the CFR price of methanol at the main port in China was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main port in China was 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week [34]. - Basis: As of February 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - Industry: As of February 12, China's methanol production was 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week. As of February 11, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 7.61% compared with the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 9.75% compared with the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous data. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to December was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 12, the methanol import profit was - 15.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with last week [44][50][55]. - Downstream: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.16%, an increase of 1.34% compared with the previous week. As of February 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [58][62].