国债期货周报：节前交投清淡，债市窄幅震荡-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic inflation in January showed a slight decline, and the weak fundamentals still supported the bond market. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure of government bonds was limited, but as the Two Sessions approached, the expectation of pro - growth policies might gradually heat up. If the equity market continued the spring market, the bond market would face the pressure of capital diversion. In the short term, the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts was not high, and the bond market sentiment before the Two Sessions might tend to be watchful, with interest rates expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [101] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - Weekly data: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures' main contracts rose by 0.24%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract fell by 0.01%. For the front two CTD of each term, their bond prices also showed different degrees of increase. The trading volume of TS, TF, T main contracts increased, while that of TL main contract decreased; the positions of TF, TS, T, TL main contracts all decreased [13][30] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Policy news: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out Treasury bond trading operations regularly. The three major exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, and the Ministry of Commerce encouraged consumer goods trade - in during the Spring Festival [33][34] - Overseas news: The U.S. non - farm payrolls in January increased strongly, the unemployment rate dropped to a new low since August 2025. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister mentioned tax cuts and cooperation with the U.S [35] 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds narrowed; the spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the 10 - year contract's inter - term spread slightly narrowed, while the 30 - year contract's inter - term spread widened; the 5 - year and 2 - year contract's inter - term spreads widened [43][49][53] - Treasury futures' main positions change: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury futures main contract increased [67] - Interest rate changes: The overnight, 1 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, the 2 - week Shibor rate increased, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.43%. Most of the Treasury bond spot yields declined, with the 2 - 7Y yields down 0.3 - 2.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields down 2bp and 0.6bp to 1.78% and 2.22% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and U.S. 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed [71][77] - Central bank's open - market operations: This week, the central bank conducted 1614.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market, with 405.5 billion yuan due; carried out 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposit, achieving a net investment of 185.89 billion yuan [80] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 127.0428 billion yuan, the total repayment was 140.8638 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 13.821 billion yuan [84] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9398, up 192 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury yield in China declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][93][98] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the CPI in January decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival effect, but the core inflation continued to improve. The PPI was expected to recover to the positive range in the first half of the year. Overseas, the U.S. employment market was stabilizing, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. Before the festival, the central bank injected a large amount of liquidity, and the bond market was supported by weak fundamentals. After the festival, the bond market might face capital diversion pressure, and interest rates were expected to fluctuate within a range [101]