铁矿石市场周报：供应宽松+信心不足，铁矿期价重心下移-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US employment market is better than expected, slowing down interest - rate cut expectations, while China continues its loose monetary policy. In the industrial aspect, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have declined due to weather conditions. Downstream steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production have continued to increase slightly. Port inventories have changed from increasing to decreasing but remain at a historical high. After the Spring Festival, steel mills will mainly consume in - plant inventories. It is recommended to trade the I2605 contract with a weak - oscillation trend and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control. It is also suggested to hold long positions in put options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on February 13, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 746 (- 14.5) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 (- 12) yuan/dry ton [6] 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 559.3 tons week - on - week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2535.3 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 1948.9 tons, a decrease of 572.1 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1279.8 tons, down 540.6 tons week - on - week, with 1097.5 tons shipped to China, a decrease of 521.6 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 669.0 tons, a decrease of 31.5 tons week - on - week [5][6][30] 3.1.3 Arrival - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2455.6 tons, a decrease of 213.6 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2361.3 tons, a decrease of 123.4 tons week - on - week; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1264.0 tons, a decrease of 24.7 tons week - on - week [6][30] 3.1.4 Demand - The daily average molten iron production was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons week - on - week and 2.50 tons year - on - year [6] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of February 13, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 17732.12 tons, a decrease of 182.56 tons week - on - week and an increase of 1727.59 tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 10703.93 tons, an increase of 387.29 tons week - on - week and 1561.12 tons year - on - year [6] 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and 12.12 percentage points year - on - year [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract oscillated downward. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [14] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On February 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2900, with a week - on - week increase of 0. The net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 22916, an increase of 9730 compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On February 13, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 803 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival and Shipment - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at Chinese ports decreased [30] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 182.56 tons, while the average daily port clearance volume increased by 9.59 tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and traded ore decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased by 387.29 tons, the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 3.30 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 0.93 days [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days and Shipping Index - As of February 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 30 days, a decrease of 1 day week - on - week. On February 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2095, an increase of 172 week - on - week [38] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In December, China imported 11964.7 tons of iron ore and concentrates, an increase of 910.7 tons month - on - month and 8.2% month - on - month. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 125870.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 61.47%, a decrease of 1.67% compared with the previous period [42] 3.3.5 Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 7934.49 tons, a decrease of 368.31 tons month - on - month. The cumulative production from January to December was 100207.71 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2401.88 tons. In December, the iron concentrate production of 433 domestic iron mines was 2228.5 tons, a decrease of 52.6 tons month - on - month, a decline of 2.3% [45] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production in 2025 was 96081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In December 2025, China exported 1130.1 tons of steel, an increase of 132.1 tons month - on - month and 13.2% month - on - month; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 11901.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 51.7 tons of steel, an increase of 2.1 tons month - on - month and 4.2% month - on - month; the cumulative import volume from January to December was 605.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On February 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.13%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points week - on - week and 2.15 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week and 0.81 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons week - on - week and 2.50 tons year - on - year [52] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the high iron ore port inventory and steel mills' focus on consuming in - plant inventory after the Spring Festival, the futures price may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in put options [55]