集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates of container shipping index (European Line) futures mostly rose this week. The main contract EC2604 closed up 2.14%, and the far - month contracts had gains ranging from - 2% to 5%. The delay of the Red Sea resumption of navigation and the shipping companies' price increase announcements boosted the futures prices. However, the implementation of the price increase is expected to be less than expected due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern. The cancellation of the full - tax refund for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, supporting the April contract [6][35]. - China's foreign trade improved significantly in December 2026, which may be related to the cancellation of value - added tax export tax rebates for some commodities and the pre - holiday rush of exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026 [6][35]. - Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure due to the high tax rate of nearly 40%. The boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [7][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of the main contracts of container shipping index (European Line) futures rose this week. The EC2604 contract had a weekly increase of 2.17% with a price increase of 27.00 and a closing price of 1269.80; the EC2605 contract had a weekly increase of 2.69%, etc. The SCFIS index closed at 1657.94, down 7.5% or 134.2 points from last week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract were generally stable [10][13][14]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | Trump's statement on US - Iran negotiation | Neutral [17] | | US Congress's resolution against Trump's tariff on Canada | Neutral - bullish [17] | | Fed officials' statements on monetary policy | Neutral [17] | | China's central bank's monetary policy report | Neutral [17] | 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [24]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European Line increased slightly. The BDI and BPI rebounded, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [29]. - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar converged [31]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current situation shows that although shipping companies have announced price increases for March - April, the probability of implementation is not high. The rush of exports caused by the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports the April contract. Investors should focus on the actual implementation of the price increase announcements. Due to the high tax rate, China's exports to the US are under pressure, and the traditional peak - season effect may be weak. Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [36].