螺纹钢市场周报：终端需求持续萎缩，螺纹期价弱势运行-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar will increase synchronously, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, and the market may move in a range. It is recommended to consider operating the RB2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100, paying attention to market changes and risk control. Also, it is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - Market Review: As of February 13, the price of the rebar main contract was 3055 yuan/ton (-22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (-10). Rebar output decreased to 169.16 tons (-22.52), with a year - on - year decrease of 8.99 tons. Apparent demand dropped to 101.91 tons (-45.73), with a year - on - year increase of 37.74 tons. Total rebar inventory increased to 586.82 tons (+67.25), with a year - on - year decrease of 232.54 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from last week and 12.12 percentage points from last year [7] - Market Outlook: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts slowed down. Trump, as the prime minister, said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" option. Domestically, in January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for four consecutive months. The central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of six - month outright reverse repurchase operations on February 13, with 500 billion yuan of six - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in February, indicating a sixth consecutive month of increased roll - overs with an additional amount of 500 billion yuan. In terms of cost, affected by weather, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, and domestic port inventories turned from increasing to decreasing. Due to the shrinking terminal demand during the Spring Festival and the fact that steel mills mainly consumed in - plant inventories after the festival, iron ore prices were weak. During the Spring Festival, more links in the coking coal and coke industry chain shut down, downstream demand weakened, and the inventory of coking coal and coke accumulated to a reasonable range, with futures prices continuing to oscillate weakly. Technically, the center of the RB2605 contract moved down, the futures price was below the 3100 mark, and the moving average combination was in a short - term arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were moving down, and the green bar was stable [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: This week, the RB2605 contract oscillated weakly and was stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton. On February 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,297 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,682 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract was 32,781 lots, an increase of 2,064 lots from the previous week [14][21] - Spot Market: On February 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3304 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [27] 3.3. Upstream Market - Raw Material Prices: On February 13, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1610 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [31] - Arrival and Inventory: From February 2 to 8, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 24.556 million tons, a decrease of 2.136 million tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.613 million tons, a decrease of 1.234 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.247 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 177.3212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8256 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.6717 million tons, an increase of 0.959 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 80.7348 million tons, a decrease of 0.1579 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 59.2887 million tons, a decrease of 0.9956 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 116.0593 million tons, a decrease of 1.6979 million tons [37] - Coking Plant Situation: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.97%, an increase of 0.74%; the daily average coke output was 503,700 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons; the coke inventory was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 89,000 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 11.1809 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons; the available days of coking coal were 16.7 days, an increase of 0.18 days [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - Supply Side - Crude Steel Production: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In 2025, the annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [45] - Rebar Production: On February 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons. On February 12, the weekly output of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 1.6916 million tons, a decrease of 225,200 tons from the previous week and 89,900 tons from the same period last year [48] - Electric Arc Furnace Steel: On February 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 37.08%, a decrease of 4.94% from the previous week and 1.97% from the same period last year. This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 28.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 29.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.48 percentage points. Except for the Northeast and Northwest regions which remained flat, other regions decreased significantly [51] - Rebar Inventory: On February 12, the in - plant inventory of rebar from 137 building material production enterprises was 1.6359 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 737,000 tons. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.2323 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5884 million tons. The total rebar inventory was 5.8682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 672,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3254 million tons [54] - Demand Side: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [57] 3.5. Options Market - Options Strategy: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar will increase synchronously, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, and the market may move in a range. It is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]