沪铜市场周报：供给收敛预期向好，铜价或将有所支撑-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint - Lightly position and trade short - term long on dips, pay attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of +0.28% and an amplitude of 4.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 100,380 yuan/ton [6] - International Situation: The US non - farm payroll report showed that the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. After the non - farm data was released, the market lowered its expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - Domestic Situation: In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for 4 consecutive months, with the increase 0.2 percentage points higher than last month, and fell 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month [6] - Fundamentals: The spot index of copper concentrate TC continued to decline, and the expectation of tight mines still provided strong support for copper prices. On the supply side, smelters gradually went on holiday and stopped production approaching the holiday, and the import window tightened, resulting in a decrease in arrivals and a reduction in domestic copper supply. On the demand side, downstream buyers made purchases on dips when copper prices fell, and the opening of the export window provided certain resilience for domestic demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of converging supply and resilient demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in domestic inventories. It is expected that downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the long holiday, driving downstream inventory reduction and boosting domestic refined copper demand [6] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of February 13, 2026, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 100,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 280 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 138,266 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 37,040 lots [13] - Spot Prices: As of February 13, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,490 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [19] - Copper Premium and Positions: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 34 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai copper was - 65,577 lots, a decrease of 8,348 lots compared to last week [25] - Options Market: As of February 13, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper contract was below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6831, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0671 [30] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - Copper Ore Quotations and Processing Fees: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 90,680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,270 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 2,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [33] - Copper Ore Imports and Scrap - Refined Price Difference: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrate was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons compared to November, with an increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 6,172.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5,410.41 yuan/ton [38] - Global Copper Ore Production and Port Inventory: As of November 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrate was 1,923 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 thousand tons compared to October, with a decrease of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrate was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% compared to October. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrate in seven domestic ports was 442,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons [43] Supply Side - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to November, with an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of November 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,371 thousand tons, a decrease of 30 thousand tons compared to October, with a decrease of 1.25%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.3%, an increase of 1.4% compared to October [45] - Refined Copper Imports: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6,677.56 tons compared to November, with a decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 1,616.89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,154.49 yuan/ton [53][54] - Social Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 13,375 tons compared to last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 1,444 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 36,508 tons compared to last week. The total social inventory was 371,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,400 tons [57] Downstream and Application - Copper Products Production and Imports: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons compared to November, with an increase of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to November, with an increase of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.43% [63] - Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs decreased by 4.4%, 9.6%, increased by 5.7%, 7%, and decreased by 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 484,279,481,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] Overall - Global Supply - Demand Situation: According to ICSG statistics, as of November 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 94 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of November 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 100,100 tons [79]