白糖市场周报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined, with a weekly decline of about 0.33%. The global supply surplus expectation continues to ferment, and the raw sugar price continues to decline. Although the external sugar price hits new lows, before the import license is issued, the actual import is expected to be limited in the short term, and the correlation between domestic and foreign markets weakens. Domestic market sentiment is relatively cautious approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the spot price remains stable. Pay attention to position risks as the holiday approaches [5]. - Future factors to watch include domestic imports and demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.33% [5]. - Market Outlook: As of the week of February 11, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 53 from 49 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased by 16.98% to 1.83 million tons from 1.5644 million tons in the previous week. The global supply surplus expectation continues to ferment, and the raw sugar price continues to decline. Before the import license is issued, the actual import is expected to be limited in the short term, and the correlation between domestic and foreign markets weakens. Domestic market sentiment is relatively cautious approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the spot price remains stable [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar May contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.53%. As of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 210,289 lots, an increase of 42,536 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 154,357 lots, an increase of 935 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 364,646 lots, an increase of 43,470 lots from the previous week [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 13.97 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.01 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.33%. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of sugar was - 61,353 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 14,461 [18][25]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 11 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 139 yuan per ton [29]. - Spot Market: As of February 13, the white sugar quotation in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,350 yuan per ton, and the sugar quotation in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton [35]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,431 yuan per ton, an increase of 128 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 285 yuan per ton, an increase of 179 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,286 yuan per ton, an increase of 151 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 226 yuan per ton, an increase of 187 yuan per ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: The supply side is mainly characterized by increased production. In December 2025, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 316.67% and a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 950% [50]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: No specific data analysis of industrial inventory is provided in the text, only the chart is mentioned [46]. - Demand Side - Sales Rate: The sales rate of sugar is average. In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [61]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - Options Market: The text only mentions the implied volatility chart of at - the - money options of sugar this week, without specific data [62]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The text only provides the chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, without specific data analysis [66].