棉花（纱）市场周报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.10%. The US cotton 5 - month contract price also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.87%. The cotton yarn futures 2605 contract rose by 0.61% [5][12][21] - The US cotton export signing volume and shipment volume both decreased this week. In the domestic market, the supply of domestic and imported cotton is sufficient, and the inventory of imported cotton in ports has increased. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream stocking has decreased. However, there is a general expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area, which provides strong support for cotton prices. Considering the upcoming long - holiday, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5] - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.10% [5] - Market Outlook: The US cotton export signing volume and shipment volume decreased. In the domestic market, supply is sufficient, downstream stocking decreased, but the expected reduction in cotton planting area supports cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The US cotton 5 - month contract price rose by about 1.87% this week. As of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 101,788 lots, an increase of 5,316 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 144,532 lots, an increase of 9,093 lots; the net short positions were 42,744 lots, an increase of 3,777 lots [12] - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of the week ending February 5, the net increase in US upland cotton export sales was 231,000 bales, a decrease of 8% from the previous week and 23% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 73.3 cents per pound, an increase of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15] - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose by about 1.10% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract rose by 0.61%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 113,217 lots, and that of cotton yarn futures was - 864 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 11,001 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 0 lots [21][26][30] - Spot Market: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,119 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 21,520 yuan per ton [38][49] - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of February 12, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,615 yuan per ton, an increase of 31 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,418 yuan per ton, an increase of 61 yuan per ton. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for C21S was 20,293 yuan per ton, C32S was 21,557 yuan per ton, and JC32S was 23,300 yuan per ton [55] - Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit: As of February 12, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,414 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,069 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan per ton [58] 3. Industry Situation - Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [61] - Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [65] - Mid - End Industry - Demand - Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of the end of December, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 days. The grey cloth inventory was 33.8 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 days [68] - Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [72] - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales Cumulative Volume: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 166.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.75% [76] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [77] - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongfa: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa [80]