铝类市场周报：假期临近需求回落，铝类或将震荡运行-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals show sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals indicate stable supply and a slight decline in demand. After the long - holiday, demand is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand and relatively high industrial inventory. After the holiday, cast aluminum consumption is expected to pick up. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review - Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.51%, closing at 23,195 yuan/ton. Alumina showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.6%, closing at 2,841 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.41%, closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [4][7] - Market Outlook - Alumina: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. The overall start - up of alumina smelters is stable, and may decline slightly due to the approaching holiday. The domestic supply is generally stable, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually boosts the demand for alumina, but the increase is limited [4] - Electrolytic aluminum: The raw material alumina is priced at a low level, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. The start - up of production remains stable. Limited by the production capacity ceiling and fewer production days, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream processing enterprises has weakened due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the spot market transactions are relatively light, with obvious inventory accumulation [5] - Cast aluminum: The price of primary aluminum is still at a relatively high level, and the cost of scrap aluminum has increased due to climate reasons, providing cost support for cast aluminum. As the holiday approaches, recycled aluminum plants are gradually shutting down, and the domestic supply of cast aluminum has decreased. Downstream die - casting enterprises are also in the long - holiday shutdown state, and the relatively high price of cast aluminum has suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes - As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 23,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 0.56% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,097.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 71.5 US dollars/ton or 2.36% from February 6. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6, a decrease of 0.25 from February 6 [10][11] - As of February 13, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton or 0.85% from February 6. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 0.41% from February 6 [14] - Position Changes - As of February 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 629,783 lots, a decrease of 21,220 lots or 3.26% from February 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 57,233 lots from February 6 [17] - Price Difference Changes - As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 77,185 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from February 6 [20] - Spot Price Changes - As of February 13, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from February 6. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 23,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.42% from February 6 [25] - As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 23,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.04% from February 6. The spot discount was 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory Changes - As of February 12, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 483,550 tons, a decrease of 9,425 tons or 1.91% from February 5. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 861,100 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons or 8.16% from February 5. As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 245,140 tons [30][33] - As of February 13, 2026, the total warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum were 202,395 tons, an increase of 46,862 tons or 30.13% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the total registered warehouse receipts of LME electrolytic aluminum were 441,425 tons, an increase of 775 tons or 0.18% from February 5 [33] - Bauxite Import and Inventory - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.63 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous month. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous month and 2.02% from the same period last year. From January to December, the import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% from the same period last year [36] - Scrap Aluminum Situation - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. In December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 22.8% from the same period last year; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a decrease of 4.4% from the same period last year [40] - Alumina Production and Trade - In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina production was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a decrease of 1.99% from the previous month and an increase of 1389.71% from the same period last year; the export volume was 210,000 tons, an increase of 23.53% from the previous month and 10.53% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a decrease of 15.64% from the same period last year [45] - Electrolytic Aluminum Trade and Production - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 189,200 tons, an increase of 17.22% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.5376 million tons, an increase of 18.82% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 37,600 tons. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 296,600 tons. From January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons [48] - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 3% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 4.5016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% from the same period last year. In January 2026, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.854 million tons, an increase of 0.58% from the previous month and 2.28% from the same period last year; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous month and 0.51% from the same period last year; the start - up rate was 98.79%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.71% from the same period last year [51] - Aluminum Products Production and Trade - In December 2025, the aluminum products production was 6.1356 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum products production was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the aluminum products import volume was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7.1% from the same period last year; the export volume was 540,000 tons, an increase of 7.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum products import volume was 3.92 million tons, an increase of 4.6% from the same period last year; the export volume was 6.13 million tons, a decrease of 8% from the same period last year [55] - Cast Aluminum Alloy Situation - In January 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the previous month and an increase of 9.03% from the same period last year. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 664,900 tons, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and an increase of 10.95% from the same period last year [58] - Aluminum Alloy Production and Trade - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a decrease of 11.81% from the same period last year; the export volume was 25,500 tons, an increase of 20.03% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a decrease of 16.82% from the same period last year; the export volume was 284,700 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last year [61] - Real Estate Market - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing start - up area was 587.6996 million square meters, a decrease of 20.47% from the same period last year; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9% from the same period last year [64] - Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales - From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by - 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a decrease of 6.2% from the same period last year; the production volume was 3,295,965 units, a decrease of 2.09% from the same period last year [67] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71]