沪镍不锈钢市场周报：镍矿趋紧库存累增，镍不锈钢震荡调整-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, and stainless steel futures prices will also fluctuate and adjust [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - Weekly Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +2.54% and an amplitude of 7.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 135,190 yuan/ton [9] - Market Outlook: The US existing - home sales in January were lower than expected. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decline due to the rainy season. Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, and the raw material supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be significantly lower than that in 2025. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and the production profit has room for improvement, so the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. The demand from stainless steel mills and the new - energy vehicle industry is increasing. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the position is stable, and the market sentiment is flat [9] Stainless Steel - Weekly Review: This week, stainless steel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +1.39% and an amplitude of 4.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 13,860 yuan/ton [9] - Market Outlook: The raw material supply of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to cut production. The production profit of stainless steel mills has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost. The end - of - year maintenance of steel mills increases, and the output growth is limited. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, but the export volume remains high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the social inventory of stainless steel begins to accumulate seasonally. Technically, the position decreases, and both long and short positions are cautious [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Price Movement - As of February 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 135,190 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of February 13, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,045 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan/nickel from last week [15] Basis - As of February 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 140,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,910 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton [20] Price Ratio - As of February 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.75, up 0.11 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.7 yuan/ton, down 0 from last week [27] Net Long Positions - As of February 12, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 52,531 lots, an increase of 6,355 lots from February 6, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,583 lots, an increase of 956 lots from February 6, 2026 [31] 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions Supply Side - Nickel Ore Inventory and Production Profit: As of February 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons from last week. As of February 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was - 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,600 yuan/ton from last week [39][40] - Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.83%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 233,105.581 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.4% [43] - Exchange Inventories: As of February 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons from last week. As of February 13, the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 tons, an increase of 2,238 tons from last week [51] Demand Side - Stainless Steel Production and Export: In January 2026, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%. Among them, the output of 400 - series stainless steel was 645,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.64%; the output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the output of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.0331 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85%. In December 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7324 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [55] - Regional Stainless Steel Inventory: As of February 13, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 304,983 tons, an increase of 19,938 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 531,769 tons, an increase of 15,626 tons from last week [60] - Stainless Steel Production Profit: As of February 13, the stainless steel production profit was 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from last week [64] - Related Industries: In 2025, the real estate industry showed a weak downward trend, with the new - construction area, completion area, and development investment all decreasing year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the output of household refrigerators and freezers increased year - on - year, and the output of washing machines decreased year - on - year. In January 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles was flat year - on - year, and the sales decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of excavators and large - and medium - sized tractors increased year - on - year, while the output of small tractors decreased year - on - year [68][72]