沪锌市场周报：采需转淡，库存增加预计锌价宽幅调整-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments and face downward pressure. This is due to factors such as the macro - economic situation where US January existing - home sales were lower than expected, the upstream zinc ore situation with high imports but year - end domestic production cuts, refinery profit contractions, and the downstream market turning to the off - season with weakening demand in some sectors and only partial bright spots in others [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: This week, the main Shanghai zinc contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.04% and an amplitude of 2.41%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,195 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, US January existing - home sales were 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million and the previous value of 4.35 million. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc ore production decreases at the end of the year. Refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to be limited. The export window may close again. Demand - side is turning to the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some policy - supported bright spots in the automotive field. Downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and domestic social inventories have slightly increased [4]. - Technical Analysis: Open interest is stable while prices are adjusting, and trading between long and short positions has weakened [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton or 1.04% from February 6, 2026. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83 US dollars/ton or 2.52% from February 6, 2026 [7]. - Net Position of Top 20: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,275 lots, an increase of 2,040 lots from February 6, 2026. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 178,440 lots, a decrease of 12,112 lots or 6.36% from February 6, 2026 [10]. - Price Spreads: As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026. The lead - zinc futures spread was 7,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026 [16][17]. - Spot Premium: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 0.77% from February 6, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of February 12, 2026, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 28.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.94 US dollars/ton from February 5, 2026 [22]. - Inventory: As of February 12, 2026, LME refined zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons or 3.99% from February 5, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, SHFE refined zinc inventory was 87,025 tons, an increase of 16,336 tons or 23.11% from last week. As of February 12, 2026, domestic refined zinc social inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons or 16.46% from February 5, 2026 [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Upstream - Zinc Ore: In November 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.44% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [31]. - Supply - Global Refined Zinc: In November 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1612 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 56,300 tons or 5.1%. Consumption was 1.1689 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,500 tons or 0.47%. The global refined zinc deficit was 7,700 tons, compared with a deficit of 58,500 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [36][37]. - Supply - Refined Zinc Production: In December 2025, zinc production was 675,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [40]. - Supply - Refined Zinc Import and Export: In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,760.85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 524.21% [43]. - Downstream - Galvanized Sheet: From January to December 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95% [46][47]. - Downstream - Real Estate: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [52][53]. - Downstream - Infrastructure Investment: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year [58][59]. - Downstream - Home Appliances: In December 2025, refrigerator production was 10.0115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [61]. - Downstream - Automobile: In January 2026, China's automobile sales volume was 2.346 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The automobile production volume was 2.45 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [65].