甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - Market Situation: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - Market Situation: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - Price Data: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - Market Situation: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - Price Data: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - Market Situation: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].