铁合金周报-节后降库模式开启，关注两会宏观强预期

Market Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, domestic focus is on stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, while overseas attention is on U.S. tariff changes and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2] - Silicon iron futures contract 2605 closed at 5492, down 0.90%, with a net capital inflow of 276 million yuan and an increase in positions by 12,966 contracts[2] - The average daily production of silicon iron decreased by 1.20% to 14,005 tons, with a weekly supply of 98,000 tons, down 1.21%[2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weekly supply-demand mismatch for silicon iron is expanding, with a monthly supply surplus rate expected to decrease[2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 28.35%, a decrease of 0.96% week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction[2] - Steel mill silicon iron inventory increased to 17.52 days, up 13.69% from the previous month, indicating a rise in inventory levels[2] Core Logic - The expectation of lower prices for raw materials like anthracite is weakening, with industry losses ranging from 100 to 600 yuan per ton[4] - The demand reduction is expected to have diminishing negative impacts, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery[4] - Policy support is anticipated to stabilize the market, with a focus on post-holiday inventory adjustments[4]