芳烃橡胶早报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, as it turns to inventory accumulation with compressed processing fees and PXN, considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors and limited supply increase at current valuations, attention can be paid to phased positive spreads and long - allocation opportunities [2] - For MEG, after the valuation is compressed again, the supply reduction increases. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of destocking in the far - month is enhanced. In the production cycle, the overall elasticity is limited, so short - term put - selling opportunities can be considered [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonal weakness is expected to continue, and it enters the pre - holiday production reduction stage. With limited absolute inventory pressure, medium - low valuation and weak drivers, the overall contradiction is limited. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2] - For natural rubber, the strategy is to wait and see [5] Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From February 9 - 13, 2026, the price of crude oil changed by 0.3, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 10, PTA internal - market spot decreased by 75, and polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged. The PTA processing spread decreased by 25, and the polyester gross margin increased by 81 [2] - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton device restarted [2] - Market Situation: Near - end TA device maintenance led to a decline in the start - up rate, polyester load continued to decline, inventory continued to accumulate, and the basis remained stable. The spot processing fee improved month - on - month [2] MEG - Price and Profit Changes: From February 9 - 13, 2026, the MEG external - market price decreased by 4, the internal - market price decreased by 51, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 51. The internal - market cash - flow (ethylene) decreased by 48 [2] - Device Changes: Shanxi Woneng's 300,000 - ton device restarted [2] - Market Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based production was stable while coal - based production restarted, with a slight increase in overall start - up. The arrival at the port was stable, and the port inventory continued to increase significantly at the beginning of next week. The basis strengthened slightly, and the coal - based profit shrank [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From February 9 - 13, 2026, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained unchanged, and the short - fiber profit increased by 81 [2] - Device and Market Situation: Near - end device maintenance before the holiday continued, the start - up rate further decreased to 68.3%, sales were weak, inventory increased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee remained stable month - on - month. The start - up rate of the polyester yarn continued to decline, raw material inventory and finished - product inventory remained stable, and the profit remained stable month - on - month [2] Natural Rubber - Price Changes: From February 9 - 13, 2026, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 10, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed decreased by 10, and the price of RMB mixed decreased by 90 [5] - Spread and Other Changes: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 45, and the spread between US - dollar Thai standard and NR main contract increased by 127. The Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipt increased by 500 [5] Styrene - Price Changes: From February 9 - 13, 2026, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by 12, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 15 [10] - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 1480, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 1515 [10]