LPG早报-20260224

Group 1: Report Core View - The LPG market showed an upward trend on the pre - holiday week, and the monthly spread fluctuated significantly due to capital behavior. The basis was - 102 (- 31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was - 164 (+ 139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (- 10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+ 0). During the holiday, the overseas market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operation still showed resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so there was room for the spot price to rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the overseas market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, and the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral [1] - The overseas market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter. Geopolitical factors were still crucial and needed continuous attention [1] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | - 281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | - 305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | - 282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | - 274 | 296 | | 2026/02/13 | 4750 | 4467 | 4470 | 621 | 551 | 529 | 4460 | 7280 | - 171 | 315 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 30 | - 14 | - 20 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 19 | [1]