大越期货沪铝周报-20260224

Report Overview - Report Title: "Shanghai Aluminum Weekly Report (2.9 - 2.13)" [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, the market will enter a stage driven by both fundamentals (domestic seasonal demand) and policy (US tariff trends). Due to the long - term support of the 45 million - ton ceiling capacity constraint in China, aluminum prices are still likely to rise rather than fall. After the holiday, the price may open higher, mainly running between 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is still optimistically oscillating upward. As the consumption peak season is approaching, short - term long positions are recommended [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the Spring Festival holiday, LME copper prices were oscillating. After the holiday, the market will be driven by fundamentals and policy [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Items - Also includes aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but no specific content is provided [6] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Spot - Futures Spread - No specific content is provided, only the data source is Wind [26][28] 3.2 Import Profit - No specific content is provided [29]