永安期货有色早报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The current global consumption of copper is strong, and there is significant rigid demand support. The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, and in the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1] - Aluminum: After the sharp correction of the aluminum market, wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, it may cause aluminum prices to rise [1] - Zinc: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] - Nickel: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [7] - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, with continuous disturbances from Indonesian quota news [11] - Lead: The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] - Tin: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe. In the long - term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of the year [17] - Industrial Silicon: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases to a low level [23] 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 120 to - 110, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 359, the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 7,225 tons [1] - Analysis: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to the LME. However, global copper consumption is strong, and there is rigid demand support. The industrial end still provides support [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 52,200 tons [1] - Analysis: The aluminum market corrected sharply, with weak demand. The supply side had unexpected increases, and it is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. The deterioration of the Iranian situation may push up aluminum prices [1] Zinc - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton, the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 16,336 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons [1][2][3] - Analysis: On the supply side, domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] Nickel - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 5,250 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 702 tons [7] - Analysis: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was weak, and the short - term fundamentals were weak. The market is affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and overall non - ferrous sentiment [7] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [11] - Analysis: Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month, demand entered the off - season, and the fundamentals remained weak. The market is affected by Indonesian quota news and overall non - ferrous sentiment [11] Lead - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the social inventory increased by 8,715 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 250 tons [14][15] - Analysis: On the supply side, production decreased seasonally. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] Tin - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the tin spot import profit increased by 7,169.71, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons [16][17] - Analysis: The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side has different views on restocking. In the short term, it is recommended to observe, and in the long - term, there may be a large downward fluctuation [17] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [21] - Analysis: Production in the southwest region decreased, and a large factory in Xinjiang cut production. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and in the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,250 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,477 [23] - Analysis: In the short term, the fundamentals are strong, with upstream maintenance exceeding expectations and downstream maintenance falling short of expectations. There is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases [23]