大越期货棉花早报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is overall neutral, but the outlook for Zheng cotton is bullish after the holiday. The expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 by over 10% is a positive factor. Although there are negative factors such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders and an increase in inventory, the pre - holiday high - level consolidation of Zheng cotton and the rebound of US cotton during the Spring Festival suggest that Zheng cotton is likely to rise after the holiday, maintaining a bullish and volatile trend [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the 2025/26 annual output is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the February forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,119, and the basis is 1379 (for the 05 contract), with a premium over futures, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The February 2025/26 forecast of the ending inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.29 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position Holdings: The positions are bullish, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still showing a bullish tendency [4]. - Expectations: During the Spring Festival, US cotton rebounded from the bottom to around 66 cents. Zheng cotton was relatively strong compared to the external market before the holiday, and the holiday rise in the external market will have little impact on Zheng cotton. Zheng cotton is likely to rise after the holiday, maintaining a bullish and volatile trend [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In 2025/26, the global cotton output is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, imports are 951.6 million tons, exports are 951.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and inventory changes in different countries [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025): The area is 3041.385 million hectares, the yield per unit is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 2539.956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 1583.577 million tons, imports are 971.442 million tons, consumption is 2500.778 million tons, exports are 971.412 million tons, the ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Data: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, for the 2025/26 season, the sown area is 29.79 million hectares, the yield per unit is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content