大越期货贵金属早报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices rose significantly due to the US Supreme Court ruling that the IEEPA tariff was illegal and Trump's new tariff rate increasing from 10% to 15%, along with ongoing tensions in the US - Iran situation. The Shanghai gold is expected to make up for a 53 - yuan/gram increase based on the pre - holiday premium [4]. - Silver prices also saw a sharp increase for the same reasons. The Shanghai silver is expected to make up for a 2200 - yuan/kilogram increase based on the pre - holiday premium. However, the silver price has high volatility, and cautious operation is recommended [5]. - Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support for precious metals. But there are risks such as Trump - related impacts, improvement in US economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [10][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - For gold, the US Supreme Court's ruling and Trump's tariff increase led to a 5.36% rise in COMEX gold futures to $5247 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 8.2 basis points to 4.031%, and the US dollar index rose 0.72% to 97.74. The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar [4]. - For silver, due to the same factors, COMEX silver futures rose 14.4% to $88 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to China's February LPR, President Trump's State of the Union address, and intensive speeches by Fed members and the ECB president. The US Supreme Court's ruling and Trump's tariff increase, along with the tense US - Iran situation, are driving up precious metal prices [4][5]. 3.3. Today's Concerns - 09:00: China's February one - year/five - year loan market quoted rate (LPR) - Time TBD: New round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens - 18:30: ECB Governing Council member and Austrian Central Bank President Martin Kocher's speech - 21:00: US Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's speech (2027 FOMC voter) - 22:00: US December S&P/CS20 major city housing price index, December FHFA housing price index, US Atlanta Fed President Bostic's speech (2027 FOMC voter), Boston Fed President Collins' opening remarks - Time TBD: President Trump's State of the Union address - 22:15: Fed Governor Waller's keynote speech, Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials' speeches in Parliament - 22:30: Fed Governor Lisa Cook's talk on AI, US Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's participation in a Bloomberg TV program - 23:00: US February Richmond Fed manufacturing index, February Conference Board consumer confidence index - Next day 01:30: Swiss National Bank President Schlegel's speech - Next day 01:45: ECB President Lagarde's speech in Frankfurt - Next day 04:15: US Richmond Fed President Barkin and Boston Fed President Collins' speeches - Time TBD: Trump's new tariff rate increase to 15% takes effect [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.1, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the futures warehouse receipts are 105,072 kilograms, an increase of 1020 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position is held, and the main long position is decreasing [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 995, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 353,559 kilograms, an increase of 3926 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position is held, and the main long position is decreasing [5][6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: On February 23, 2026, the long position volume was 150,934, a decrease of 5414 (- 3.46%) compared to February 22; the short position volume was 30,556, a decrease of 27 (- 0.09%); the net position was 120,378, a decrease of 5387 (- 4.28%) [31]. - Silver: On February 23, 2026, the long position volume was 275,101, a decrease of 12,310 (- 4.28%) compared to February 20; the short position volume was 201,731, an increase of 4632 (2.35%); the net position was 73,370, a decrease of 16,942 (- 18.76%) [33].