大越期货纯碱早报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has generally continued to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high in the same period [3]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 40 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [3]. - Inventory: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [3][34]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Influence Factors Summary - Positive factors: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable [4]. - Negative factors: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,162 | 1,150 | - 1.03% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,110 | 1,110 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 52 | - 40 | - 23.08% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,000 tons, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, and the actual put - into - production capacity was 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and sales rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [25]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].