沥青期货早报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 23.3701%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.76 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprise equipment was 1.298 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.02%. Refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to continue to reduce supply pressure next week [7]. - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 21.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 3.7058%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 2%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 5%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 34.57 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 176.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [7]. - Basis: On February 13, the Shandong spot price was 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 988,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.33%; the in - plant inventory was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.66%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 980,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.08%. Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port inventory continued to accumulate. It is neutral [7]. - Market trend: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closed below the MA20. It is neutral [7]. - Main position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased. It is bearish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory remains stable. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2604 will fluctuate in the range of 3,245 - 3,315 [7]. - Bullish factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, market trend, main position, and expectations are comprehensively analyzed, and the overall view is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [7]. - Bullish and bearish factors are listed, and the main logic of supply and demand is explained [10][11][12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The closing prices, price changes, and basis of different contracts of asphalt futures are presented, as well as some monthly spreads and registered warehouse receipts [14]. - Weekly inventory,开工率, output, shipment volume, and profit data are provided [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - The basis trends of Shandong and East China are presented [18][20]. - The spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12) are presented [23]. - The price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil are presented [26]. - The crude oil cracking spread trends are presented [29]. - The price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - The market price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong are presented [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: The asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt are presented [39][42]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output,开工率, maintenance loss volume, etc. are presented [46][49][52]. - The price of Venezuelan crude oil and its monthly production trend are presented [56]. - The production volume of refinery asphalt is presented [59]. - Inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio are presented [68][72][75]. - Import and export situation: The export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt are presented [78][81]. - Demand side: - The production volume of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, and downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, etc.) are presented [84][86][89]. - The sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators are presented [93]. - The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream开工情况 are presented [98][101][102]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt is presented [106].